The Iceberg Matrix: Brainstorming climate change 2040
Green Business

The Iceberg Matrix: Brainstorming climate change 2040

“How will the future look in 2040?” reads the subhead for The Iceberg Matrix Decision Model: “The future depends on the choices humans make.”

Penned by Roel Castelein and Monica Haltvik this “power of storytelling report” rams home the impact of climate change on humanity by presenting four very different versions of life in 2040.

Across 12 pages, four separate accounts tell the story of 55-year-old Peter, the world he lives in, his values and measure of personal success. These scenarios range from “Biosphere – the world is flooded and humanity commits slow suicide” based on “low economic growth, low sustainability awareness” to “Brave – sustainable technology and common green sense benefit all” based on “high economic growth, high sustainability awareness”.

“It is based on Scenario Planning,” explains Castelein EMEA Marketing Chair of The Green Grid. “This is an exercise used by large corporations and foresighted organisations to understand their long term challenges and how to respond to them. You identify the goal, interview thought leaders on the subject, compile all the answers, find commonalities, patterns and drivers that impact the future state.

“We interviewed about 15 people in Norway, Belgium, Netherlands, South Africa, UK, USA, Russia, France, Denmark and Germany,” he adds. These were individuals from a diverse range of backgrounds and not individuals focused specifically on climate change.

Once the information was compiled the team retained the most impactful drivers and developed scenarios based on those highlighted. “Once the four scenarios were clear, we wrote base text, and just filled it with imaginative things on how the world would look like under certain conditions,” adds Castelein.

This project has been over two years in the making. It has been a labour of love for the authors who are passionate about ICT and sustainability and as Castelein explains, fundamentally aims to show “that we make choices, and that choices have consequences”.


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